FXUS61 KGYX 021627 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
1127 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

High pressure brings a mainly sunny and dry day day today.
Low pressure passing to our northwest on Saturday will produce
another surge of warm air, gusty south winds, and mainly rain.
High pressure returns Sunday bringing fair and cooler weather
through Monday with the next system crossing the area towards
Tuesday and Tuesday night.


Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.
Only sensible weather of concern today is cloud cover. Plenty of
orographic clouds this morning have cleared...though forecast
soundings indicate that conditions will remain favorable for
them thru the afternoon. With some moisture upstream...I do have
another patch of cloud cover moving thru the forecast are this
afternoon...though not quite as dense as this morning.

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery early this morning
shows mainly clear skies south of the mountains and a
dissipating stratus field across the north and mountains. These
clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to fall
into the 20s across most locations with a few teens across the

Geopotential heights will rise today as the shortwave that brought
the snow shower activity yesterday exists the region to the east.
Mainly sunny skies are expected but the combination of a cold pool
aloft and some weak daytime destabilization will likely allow for
some cumulus to develop by this afternoon with near normal high
temperatures into the 30s across the north to the lower to middle
40s in coastal ME and southern NH. Winds today will be significantly
weaker than previous days and it will therefore feel warmer if you
are in the sunshine.


High pressure will move towards the Canadian Maritimes tonight,
resulting in gradually increasing southerly return flow off the Gulf
of Maine. This will help to bring in higher moisture, resulting in
increasing cloud cover and surface dew points overnight. Thus,
low temperatures will be limited to the 20s to lower 30s from
north to south. Latest forecast guidance indicates that there is
a low chance for spotty light precipitation to break out after
midnight, especially across the north and mountains. WAA aloft
combined with surface temperatures at or below freezing
introduces the potential for spotty light mixed precipitation,
which could cause locally slippery road conditions.

On Saturday a weak surface low will exit the Upper Great Lakes and
advance northward towards Hudson bay before it sends a cold front
through New England on Saturday evening. Ahead of this front,
WAA will allow for stratiform precipitation to develop starting
at or shortly after 7 am before ending from west to east as the
front crosses during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Across the mountains and points north, air and ground
temperatures will likely still be at or below freezing through
around mid-morning but there will be an increasing warm nose
aloft. Therefore pockets of light freezing precipitation are
possible with potential travel impacts. QPF during this period
will be light but did go ahead an add some trace amounts of ice
accumulation across these regions in order to highlight this
threat. South of the mountains just a plain rain is expected.
Storm total QPF is forecast to be largely below 0.50" and
therefore there are no significant hydro concerns with this

In terms of temperatures, went below NBM by around 3-5 degrees
across the interior as the combination of a cold start to the day
and inverted soundings with a high to our north suggests a weak CAD
is possible. This is well represented by the latest statistical
guidance including the MAV/MET, which keeps highs into the lower to
middle 40s. While the current forecast is not quite that cold (upper
40s to lower 50s) did start to trend on the cooler side.

In terms of winds, like the previous forecast stated the LLJ will be
weaker this time with the core of the jet just skirting the coast
and coastal waters. Soundings via BUFKIT also indicate that much of
the region away from the coast may remain inverted until the front
crosses, which would substantially limit wind potential. Along
the coast and especially from Casco Bay through the Mid-Coast
there is a better potential for impactful winds on the order of
40-45 mph as a 60-70 kt 925 mb jet moves through. Immediately
behind the front there will likely be a brief window of better
mixing but the core of jet will have already passed and
therefore gusts of only 25-35 mph are likely.

Winds will become west-northwesterly behind the front on Saturday
night, which will allow for increasing upslope flow and hence
scattered snow showers across the north and mountains as colder air
filters back in. Speaking of colder air,  low temperatures on
Saturday night will fall into the 20s across most locations and
therefore any remaining moisture on roads and walkways may freeze
and cause slick travel conditions for early Sunday morning.


Despite polar vortex moving off the pole toward Hudson Bay, and
the possible development of -NAO, models are still sluggish
with getting the cold air down into then CONUS, and specifically
New England through next week. In fact, fairly progressive
upstream flow and the development of strong sub-tropical ridge
near the Gulf o Mexico, may hold the colder air to our N long
enough that it wars ups there, but also produces more zonal
flow, or even ridging by late next week, to keep things milder
with more progressive and less intense systems. So, again looks
for temps in the extended to remain normal to above normal, and
the only precip maker coming in around Tue or Tue night.

Sunday will be cooler and generally on the sunny side, although
some mtn clouds are possible in the morning, with highs lower
30s N, to lower 40s S, so close to normal. Mainly clear and cold
Sun night with lows upper teens to mid 20s. Monday looks dry
and a little warmer with highs upper 30s to mid 40s. Next system
of note arrives Tuesday, and should be mainly, but could start
and/or end as snow in the mtns. Precip winds down late Tuesday
night or early Wednesday, with warmer air both days, mostly in
the mid 40s to low 50s .

Cooler air moves in later in the weekend with temps dropping
back to more seasonal levels, and the chance of SHSN in the


Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today through tonight,
although there is a low end potential for spotty light mixed
wintry precipitation after midnight, mainly across northern
sites. Light and variable winds early today will become
southerly this afternoon through tonight. On Saturday a cold
front will cross, bringing widespread RA to all TAF sites as
well as lower ceilings, likely resulting in IFR/LIFR
restrictions. Southerly winds may become gusty during the
afternoon at coastal TAF sites including KRKD, with some gusts
up to around 35-40 kts possible. LLWS of around WS020/19040KT is
also expected during the day on Wednesday as a warm front moves
through. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front on
Saturday night with VFR restrictions returning, except at KHIE
where -SHSN may result in MVFR flight categories.

Long Term...Mainly VFR Sunday through Monday, with flight
restrictions possible in mainly rain on Tuesday.


Short Term...Light and variable winds this morning will
gradually increase tonight while becoming southerly. Gale force
southerly winds are then possible on Saturday ahead of a cold
front with seas outside the bays increasing to 6-12 ft, along
with rain. Winds will become offshore on Saturday night and
likely remain at SCA levels.

Long Term...Possible lingering SCA conds on Sunday, but should
see a break Sunday night into Monday night, before SCA may be
needed Tuesday.


MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night
     for ANZ150>154.




NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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