000
FXUS61 KGYX 122015
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM VIRGINIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND OUT TO SEA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF MAINE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PINWHEELING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S. KEPT CLOUD COVER OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST HAS MADE
SOME HEADWAY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...ERODING CLOUD COVER ACROSS
CENTRAL MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS CRAWFORD
NOTCH...CONWAY...AND KENNEBUNKPORT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE APPROACHING
FROM THE SW WILL ALSO LESSEN CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY WIDELY DUE TO THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH UPPER TEENS EXPECTED NEAR JACKMAN AND LAKE MOXIE AND
LOWER 30S LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND SYNOPTIC CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING COASTAL
LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW. DRIER AIR AND CLEAR
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...SIMILAR TO TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO UPPER 40S. LIGHT RAIN ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO FALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...HOWEVER MODELS HOLD OFF THE BULK OF THE RAIN UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AFTER
SUNRISE SO P-TYPE SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT TO SEA. OVER-
RUNNING PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
MAKE FOR A SHARP CUTOFF OF THE PRECIP IN NORTHERN ZONES. COLD DRY
AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTH ON THE NORTHEAST FLOW RESULTING IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SLEET OR WET SNOW
MIXING IN AS BETTER LIFT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. NEW GFS RATHER
CURIOUS SHOWING AN ALL SNOW EVENT IN PORTLAND....EVEN WITH VERY
WARM 850 TO 700 MB THICKNESSES. HAVE PRETTY MUCH IGNORED THIS
SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT DON`T SEE FREEZING RAIN AS AN ISSUE FOR
TRAVEL CONSIDERING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT GLAZING COULD OCCUR
ON TREES IN COLDER NORTHERN SECTION OVERNIGHT.

BIG QUESTION IS QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT GETTING MUCH OF A
CLEAR SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS WITH THE GFS BACKING OFF ON AMOUNTS
AND THE NAM ON THE INCREASE. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING
A 2 TO 3 INCH MAX OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRONG LLVL JET PUNCHING INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER CYCLE IN ISSUING FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. IF HIGHER AMOUNTS COME TO PASS COULD SEE SOME PROBLEMS
ON SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THAT AREA.

MAINLY LOOKING RAIN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON SUNDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME MIX LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS INLAND. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL TO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH.

RAIN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY
TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH WITH NORTHERN ZONES
SEEING SUN FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
WARMEST LOCATIONS.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKING QUIET. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUESDAY BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR PASSING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BUT ONCE AGAIN SEE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIP.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...PWM AND AUG WILL REMAIN IN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WHILE
THE REMAINING TAF SITES LINGER NEAR MVFR...LIFTING TO VFR CIGS
LATER TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE AND INCREASE TO
AOA 12KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS AT COASTAL SITES.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO LEB/CON/PSM BEFORE 18Z.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT LIMITS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...FIRST AT ANZ154 WITH ALL OTHER MARINE ZONES QUICKLY
FOLLOWING. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 7-10 FT WITH NE FETCH IN
PLACE.

LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL
MAINE WILL APPROACH 2-3 INCHES BY SUNDAY. WITH THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS...FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW. HOWEVER AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS SUCH AS THE SUNCOOK AND LAMPREY MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

HANES/SINSABAUGH

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion