FXUS61 KGYX 240654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
254 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

High pressure remains largely in control over northern New
England through much of this upcoming week. Some showers from
the northern fringe of Ophelia may clip far southern areas at
times today through tonight. The remnants of Ophelia exit into
the Atlantic Monday with high pressure becoming centered over
New England through the end of the work week. This will bring
sunny and dry conditions, with light winds.


The remnants of Ophelia will slowly track off the Mid Atlantic
and south of New England through tonight. Current radar shows
bands of rain across the southern two thirds of NH into southern
Maine with surface observations suggesting this is mainly light
rain or sprinkles. Hi res guidance suggests that the current
bands of light rain will dissipate through this morning into
this afternoon with only chance PoPs becoming confined across
far southern NH. The 00Z HREF suggest low to mid level clouds
will hang around across southern NH into southern Maine for much
of today into tonight while far northern areas will see
thinning high level clouds through the afternoon. Persistent
northeast flow and the lack of sunshine will keep southern
areas in the low 60s while northern areas will climb into the
upper 60s. A long period swell will also bring a moderate risk
of rip currents today.


There will continue to be low chances for light rain tonight across
far southern New Hampshire into extreme SW Maine. Low to mid level
clouds will persist across the same areas while cloud cover will
continue to thin north to south. Overnight lows will be mainly in
the 40s to near 50 degrees across the south.

High pressure will start to build into the area from the north
Monday. This will allow for less in the way of clouds, although far
southern areas could see mostly cloudy skies through Monday morning.
The northeast gradient will also tighten across the area bringing
stronger northeast winds with gusts around 20 mph. Highs on Monday
will generally be in the 60s across the area.


Overview: Omega blocking pattern to our north will bring a prolonged
period of dry weather with temperatures trending from near seasonal
normals to above normal towards the end of the week.

Impacts: No weather impacts for this period except for locally dense
morning fog at times in valley areas.

Forecast Details: Looks like we will be making up for the wet summer
with the upcoming forecast period as dry weather for extended period
of time is looking promising. A Omega blocking ridge to our north
will eventually move overhead towards the end of the week. At the
surface this will bring surface high pressure with some spread in
the orientation of the ridge, but in general it will keep the area
high and dry. Forecast confidence in general is higher than normal
with NBM spread in pops and temperatures very low. Overall
temperatures will begin the period near normal with NE flow before
the ridge shifts towards the end of the week directly overhead
promoting building heights and warming temperatures to above normal.
Mostly clear nights and shortening days will promote good
radiational cooling nights with valley fog formation expected along
with some sheltered valley frost on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
There will be some large diurnal trends through this period on the
order of 30 to 40 degrees for interior valley areas.

Short Term...Periods of MVFR cigs will be possible at KCON, KMHT, and
KPSM through tonight while farther north VFR will prevail. The
exception will be some risk for valley fog impacting KLEB and KHIE
tonight. NE winds will increase through the day Monday with gusts
approaching 20 kts at coastal TAF sites. Otherwise mainly VFR
will prevail on Monday.

Long Term...Aviation weather impacts will be limited for this period
with high pressure in control.  The only issue will be early valley
morning fog formation that could bring a few hours of LIFR
conditions to some TAF locations.  The biggest impacts will be at
KLEB/KHIE/KAUG with fog formation expected to be more limited at
other TAF locations.


Short Term... Seas will build through today reaching around 5
ft across coastal waters from Cape Elizabeth southward. Northeast
winds will prevail through today with gusts topping out around
20 kts. Low pressure passing south of New England and high
pressure building in from the north will bring increasing NE
winds Monday will SCA conditions likely along the outer waters.

Long Term...SCA conditions expected on Monday night as surface ridge
builds over the area from the north, this will bring a strengthening
northeast pressure gradient over the coastal waters. Winds will
begin to slacken by Tuesday with conditions expected to decrease
below SCA criteria. High pressure is expected to be in control
through most of the week, with the potential for a weak
developing surface to our south in the mid-atlantic by the end
of the week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ154.


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Dumont

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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