FXUS61 KGYX 211029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
629 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Low pressure centered over Newfoundland will continue to
circulate a few clouds into the area today...especially across
northern and mountain sections. By Sunday...High pressure and
sunny weather arrives along with the start of a gradual warming
trend. By mid week, unsettled weather returns with the approach
of our next storm system.



625 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect current satellite trends
as well as the 10z mesonet in near term grids.

Prev Disc...
At 06z...a 994 millibar surface low was centered over Newfoundland
with a weak surface trough extending westward into the Gaspe
Peninsula. A sprawling area of 1032 millibar High pressure
extended from Hudson Bay southward across the Great Lakes. GOES
imagery showed clouds and shortwave impulses pivoting around the
stacked system over Newfoundland and into northern New England.
For today...we`ll continue to see broken clouds across the
higher terrain and over our eastern and northern Maine zones in
continued cyclonic and upslope flow. Elsewhere...a few fair
weather clouds will develop in response to daytime heating. The
gusty westerly flow between the maritimes system and high
pressure will continue before the gradient begins to relax later
today. It`ll be another chilly day by late april standards as
we warm into the 40s across the mountains...with upper 40s and
lowers 50s for the remainder of the area.


With the exception of a few lingering upslope clouds in the
mountains...and over our northern and eastern maine zones with
the upper low...skies will become mostly clear tonight. Winds
will also drop off and we`ll see a cold night with overnight readings
in the 20s to around 30. Sunday will be a mostly sunny day with
light winds under the building surface high. Temperatures will
warm into the 40s along the international border...with lower
and mid 50s for the remainder of the forecast area.


Model guidance remains consistent with ridging to the N of upper
low/trof forecast to slowly churn across the Srn CONUS thru
early next week. The gradual warm up will continue into early
next week...with some readings in the 60s likely Mon and Tue.
Multi-model consensus is a little on the cool side...mainly
because the recent colder than normal wx is dragging the bias
correction away from warm temps. I have added a little more MOS
guidance to the blend to try and offset that effect thru Tue.

By late Tue thru Wed model guidance brings in the next round of
precip. That slow moving upper low lift NEwd...and with PWAT
values forecast to be above normal for this time of year we
should see a pretty widespread rainfall. While it will not be a
warm rain...it will be mild enough for mainly rain except for
the highest elevations of the forecast area. The combination of
gradual snow melt in the milder temps plus rainfall will allow
river flows to increase thru next week. Looking at ensemble flow
guidance...that is enough to push a handful of headwater gauge
locations above flood stage late in the week. So it will be
something to keep an eye on.

Beyond midweek the pattern remains consistent with general
trofing over the Ern CONUS. With the trof axis centered to our W
that could allow for some sneaky warm days in SW flow
aloft...but overall not a much above normal look. It should also
keep precip chances in the forecast as well on the downstream
side of the trof.


Short Term /through Sunday/...VFR.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected thru Tue. Weak pressure
gradient over the area Mon afternoon will likely allow for some
sea breezes to develop At PSM...PWM...and RKD. Flow becomes more
onshore across a wider area Tue. Continued onshore flow and
increasing moisture will allow some areas of MVFR to develop
ahead of an approaching upper low. MVFR/IFR possible late Tue
into Wed in -RA.


Short Term /through Sunday/...Gusty sub-SCA westerly flow
continues across the waters today before diminishing tonight
under building surface high.

Long Term...Ely flow developing on the N side of an approaching
upper low will bring winds and seas outside the bays to around
SCA thresholds.






NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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