000
FXUS61 KGYX 091344
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
944 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND PASS SOUTH OF CAPE COD SATURDAY. RAINFALL
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR COASTAL AREAS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO BIG CHANGES FORESEEN TO THE EXISTING FORECAST THINKING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AS PRECIP SHIELD SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHWARD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY YET BUST IN SOME LOCATIONS
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS RECEIVED THAN WAS FORECAST. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE STILL BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH REGARD TO HOW
MUCH PRECIP THE AREA RECEIVES. THE ONLY CONSISTENT MODEL HAS BEEN
THE ECMWF WHICH HAS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP REMAINING OFF THE
COAST. THE 00Z NAM IS VERY WET GIVING PORTLAND OVER 2 INCHES. THE
00Z GFS HAS GONE BACK TO KEEPING BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE LIKE THE
ECMWF. LIKELY SCENARIO WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS NEAR THE COAST AND DROP THEM OFF FARTHER INLAND.
I DO NOT EXPECT THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE ANYTHING OTHER THEN CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OFFSHORE STORM GRAZES COASTAL FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN
PULLS EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CROSSES THE REGION...CRESTING OVER
THE REGION MID DAY SUNDAY. NEXT STORM PER GFS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
REGION GRAZING SOUTHERNMOST FORECAST AREA.  KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM TO CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN...SO STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO THEIR VALIDITY.  FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO USE GMOS
GUIDANCE AS HAVE NO STRONG CONFIDENCE NOT TO USE IT. (GRANTED
EUROPEAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY ON KEEPING
EARLY WEEK STORM ALSO JUST SOUTH OF US).  HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM THROUGH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY SAT MORN.


LONG TERM...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS MVFR ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HOW FAR INLAND
THEY PENETRATE WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...
QUITE ON THE WATERS TODAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL BRINGS WINDS
AND SEAS UP TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE SCA STARTING AT 06Z SAT.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...STJEAN

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion