000
FXUS61 KGYX 160253
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1053 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the region tonight,
bringing gusty winds with it. Sunshine returns tomorrow as the
front pulls offshore. Another cold front will move through late
Wednesday, bringing some of the coldest air of the season to the
region. Temperatures on Thursday will only climb into the 30s to
mid 40s during the day for highs. Thursday night lows will fall
well into the 20s, with some teens being recorded over the
mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Update...
Have updated the forecast based on current conditions and
mesoscale models. A large area of showers continues to quickly
race through the region once again, with the last of the
precipitation shift east after midnight or shortly thereafter.
Strong gusty winds will accompany and linger after the frontal
passage. Have made minor changes to the pops, winds and
temperatures in the near term. Any patchy fog will diminish
during the wind shift.

Prev Disc...
Expect precipitation to continue falling through
the evening hours. However, the primary focus of the forecast
will be on the winds. As the cold front passes through the area
after midnight, strong cold air advection and mixing will help
to bring 50 kt winds close to the surface. The strongest winds
are expected to be over the higher elevations of Maine and New
Hampshire. However, expect 40 mph gusts into the foothills and
even into the midcoast areas. Southern New Hampshire and
southern Maine should see wind gusts top out around 35mph...so
have left them out of the advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold air advection bottoms out pretty quickly during the day
tomorrow. Expect winds to begin diminishing over New Hampshire
during the mid morning hours, and coming to an end pretty much
everywhere else by noon or so. Should be little in the way of
cloud cover tomorrow as well. The drier air will also allow
temperatures Tuesday night to fall back into the 30s to around
40.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
We move into a fairly active and progressive pattern for the
long term. Wednesday high pressure remains built in over the
area aloft while the next system approaches from the West.
Temperatures will climb into the 50s across the south with the
mountains hovering near freezing.  By Wednesday night
temperatures will drop allowing the showers to transition over
to snow. Up to an inch of accumulation is possible for northern
Coos county and above 3000ft in the White Mountains.

Cold advection under northwesterly flow continues through the
day on Thursday with mountain showers continuing. As the
pressure gradient tightens wind gusts to around 30kts are
expected through the area with higher gusts on the peaks.

The core of the cold air moves into the region on Thursday
night. With the wind decreasing as the atmosphere decouples
expect temperatures to drop quite low by sunrise on Friday. Have
leaned on the colder MEX guidance with the favored valley
locations such as SFM BML and HIE dropping well into the teens.
This will likely end the growing season for the remaining
portion of the area and a Freeze Watch will likely be needed.

Friday high pressure begins to return to the region with
slightly moderating temperatures. The next system is poised to
move into the region on Saturday. There are two contributions to
this system, both a northern stream short wave diving south
across the Canadian prairies around the base of the long wave
trough which has brought the rest of our weather and a southern
stream disturbance which may merge. Right now the phasing looks
a bit off and just expect generalized showers through the area,
however the opportunity to phase the two systems would give a
more robust storm for the weekend, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...Have added LLWS to the forecast for the rest of
this evening for RKD and HIE.

IFR/LIFR in cigs and rain will continue at most
locations through the evening. However, expect to see an
improvement to VFR after midnight once the front moves through.
Although VFR conditions will prevail after midnight and early
tomorrow morning, we are still expecting most locations to see
winds gusting to around 40 mph.

Long Term... Cold air will move into the region with
northwesterly flow and mountain showers. Showers will transition
to SHSN north of the notches bringing periods of MVFR to HIE BML
and points north on Wednesday. VFR will continue through the
weekend when the next major disturbance will impact the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gale warning has been issued for all marine areas
as a strong cold front will move through tonight.

Long Term...Increasing northwesterly flow under cold air
advection will bring near the conditions on the waters to near
Gale for Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-
     021-022-027-028.
NH...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NHZ001>006.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion









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