FXUS61 KGYX 100820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
420 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Hot and humid today with a chance of isolated showers or
thunderstorms. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will
move in tonight through Saturday as the remains of tropical
storm move well to our west. An upper level trough will keep the
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into early
next week.


As TS Fay tracks N along the mid Atlantic coast today, weak sfc
ridging will hold on in nrn New England thru much of the day.
Current fog.stratus in coastal and central ME will likely take
until mid morning to dissipate, given the weaker flow, here.
Also watching some stratus creep N across MA toward srn NH,
which may work its way into srn NH this morning as well. All
this affects max temps today, and how quickly, if at all, the
stratus clears out. In srn NH, regardless of what happens with
stratus, will see cirrus thicken thru the morning, which will
limit maxes here, but still will see temps climb into the mid to
upper 80s, and heat Apparent T approach 90 given Tds around 70.
The warmest spots will likely the CT vly in central NH and up
toward KHIE, where highs could make it to 90. Otherwise, highs
should reach into the mid 80s inland areas and upper 70s to low
80s along the coast, although cooler right at the shore, which
may flirt with low clouds and fog thru much of the day.

Cannot rule out an isolated SHRA/TSRA in the mtns this
afternoon, and will probably see a few SHRA/TSRA in srn NH late
today as well in advance of Fay.


Models continue to push waht`s left of Fay further west, with
the center moving up the Hudson vly of NY. This will keep the
heaviest rain to our west. Still will see several bands of
SHRA/TSRA move thru overnight, especially across NH, and there
is potential for some torrential downpours. These will become
more prevalent across wrn and central ME closer to daybreak. It
will be generally mild and muggy night with lows in the mid 60s
to low 70s.

Saturday will see the center of Fay moving from around KALB to
Montreal. Should see bands of precip associated with it lift N
thru the morning. However, 500 MB trough to the west will pulled
east as Fay is consumed by it, and will see 500 MB height falls
and lowering temps. Depending on how much clearing can occur to
help enhance destabilization further, could see some strong to
svr storms Sat afternoon, especially over central and srn NH.
Highs on Sat range from the low to mid 80s in NH and interior SW
Me to low-mid 70s on the mid coast.


Quite warm and humid weather expected in the long term. The
remains of tropical storm Fay will move into southern Canada
Saturday night. A trough will remain to our west keeping us in a
very warm and humid airmass scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected through the weekend. A shortwave will move through
the area Monday afternoon spreading another round of showers and
thunderstorms into the region. Some thunderstorms will have very
heavy rain. Both the Euro and GFS indicating that upper level
low pressure will remain over the region through Wednesday and
possibility into Thursday will will keep the chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the area. By Friday the flow aloft becomes


Short Term...Any fog/stratus this morning should improve to VFR
by mid-morning, with the exception KRKD. Will likely see
coastal stratus and fog move back in late today, and most
terms will drop to MVFR or IFR tonight in showers associated
with remnants of TS Fay. Improvement to VFR is possible Sat

Long Term...Saturday night likely MVFR/IFR in showers and
thunderstorms and patchy fog. MVFR/IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon through Tuesday.


Short Term...May need SCA late tonight and Sat.

Long Term...SCA for winds and seas possible Saturday night and


.HYDROLOGY...With the track of Fay moving west the chance of
flash flooding is diminished but not completely ruled out. We
will be in a very tropical airmass and with high PW we will have
to continue to monitor the situation.


ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ019>028.



NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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