332
FXUS61 KGYX 122313
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
613 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the region tonight and will settle
offshore to the southeast on Thursday. High pressure will hold
off the coast Thursday night through Friday. A weak warm front
will cross the region Friday night. High pressure will build in
from the northwest Saturday and will hold over the region
through Sunday as low pressure passes to the south. Low pressure
will intensify south of the Gulf of Maine on Monday as it moves
northeast into the maritimes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.
Will be watching temps tonight...as clear skies and diminishing
winds may allow for some quick drops in readings across the
area.

Previous discussion...Quiet but cold weather continues in the
northeast tonight as high pressure crests over the region. Very
dry air mass will allow for good radiational cooling and have
shaved several degrees off coldest MOS values. Looking for lows
of 5 to 12 below in northern zones and zero to 10 above in the
south. Weak shortwave will bring high clouds into southwest New
Hampshire after midnight but this should have little if any
affect on temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening shortwave will bring thickening clouds into New
Hampshire and southwest western Maine through the day but expect
any associated snow shower activity to remain south of the
region. Temperatures will be fairly uniform across the region
with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s.

Looking for partial clearing Thursday night as the shortwave
continues to weaken and moves offshore. Will see a warmer night
with lows generally ranging through the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
It appears that much of the forecast area will be in between
precipitation systems at the start of the forecast period
(mainly Fri night into early Saturday). The more significant of
the two will be a southern stream short wave trough passing to
our south Friday night into Saturday. At this time, there is a
general consensus in 12z deterministic output and latest
ensembles that the bulk of the associated precipitation shield
will remain over southern New England. However, a period of
light rain will be possible across southernmost zones later
Friday night. It wouldn`t take much of a northward push to bring
precipitation further north into the CWA but at this time will
confine highest PoPs across southernmost NH. It`s possible that
even that area won`t measure either. Will watch trends closely.
Otherwise, a short wave trough cold front passing to the north
along with an attendant SFC cold front dropping south into the
forecast area may bring some light mixed precip to northern
zones Friday night as well.

Thereafter, the next system to watch will be another southern
stream trough moving off the mid atlc coast Sunday/Monday time
frame. At this time, it looks like it`ll remain out of phase
with a northern stream trough, allowing fairly potent low
pressure to remain offshore. However, we will continue to
monitor this as well because it won`t take much more of a
connection for the SFC low to come further north and west.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR tonight. VFR of Thursday with areas of MVFR
ceilings developing in the afternoon across New Hampshire.
Becoming VFR Thursday night.

Long Term...VFR Friday with patchy MVFR Friday night into early
Saturday in potential for a period of low clouds and light
precipitation. Mostly VFR expected for the bulk of Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing SCA`s for the outer waters through this
evening. Expect winds to drop below SCA level by midnight.

Long Term...Low-end SCA conditions possible on the ocean waters
Friday night into Saturday in association with low pressure
moving by to our south.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Legro

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion








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