FXUS61 KGYX 211043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
643 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

High pressure in southern Canada will build towards the region
today before cresting over New England on Wednesday. Another
area of low pressure crosses the region Thursday night into
early Friday. It will be seasonably mild, but unsettled through
the weekend.


Have updated the forecast based on current observations and
latest set of mesoscale models. Downsloping continues keep
southern areas mainly sunny early this morning. However, plenty
of cold air remains aloft in association with a vigorous upper
air low. Expect some of the clouds to attempt to make it into
southern areas and have increased the amount of cloud cover
across the region. In addition to the cloud forecast have upped
the chance for precipitation for northern areas today per
current trends. Also, have trended a little further south with
the pops as well for today.

For the recreation forecast, have upped the winds across the
higher terrain and added sleet to the forecast per the Mount
Washington observations.

Prev Disc...
Low pressure will intensify as it exits through the Canadian
Maritimes today. Meanwhile, high pressure will begin to build
into the region from Canada. This will set up a strong west to
northwesterly gradient over the region today which deepens
through a significant layer this afternoon. Expect wind gusts to
around 40 mph, however they may potentially go slightly higher
during the late afternoon hours.

Despite the strong cold air advection, downsloping will allow
for temperatures to climb into the 60s over southern areas. It
will be somewhat more chilly in the north where a cyclonic flow
will allow for plenty of cloudiness, especially over the
northwest facing higher terrain. Steep low level lapse rates and
sufficient moisture will allow for scattered showers in the
north today as well.


Wind profiles max out aloft this evening. However, mixing
heights will gradually lower this evening as well.

High pressure will then crest over the region on Wednesday. Will
the surface gradient will become light, winds aloft will likely
mix down to the surface, making for a somewhat breezy day. Winds
may attempt to come onshore along the coast in the afternoon.


Ensemble and deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement
on the long wave pattern through late in the upcoming weekend. The
forecast period begins with an upper trough/closed low over the
western CONUS and a building ridge downstream over the southeastern
CONUS. While the ridge will briefly build north across the area
at times...the real heat and humidity remains to our south as
passing shortwave impulses riding along the periphery of the ridge
have a tendency to flatten it. With the mean jet position
nearby...we`ll see quick day-to-day changes in the sensible
weather as weak systems continue to traverse the region. For a
change...temperatures will average close or slightly above normal
for the period as cold air remains bottled up well to our north.
In the dailies...a ridge of high pressure retreats offshore
Thursday. Low pressure and a trailing frontal system approach from
the Great Lakes for Thursday night and Friday. A weak ridge of
high pressure and drier air will briefly follow Friday night and
early Saturday. Another frontal system will cross the area late
Saturday and Saturday night. A weak cold front will cross the
region on Sunday.


Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions through the period. However,
mountain showers and cloud cover will lead to MVFR conditions
over northern and western portions of the forecast area.

Long Term...

Thu Night - Fri...Areas of MVFR in -shra.

Sat PM...Areas of MVFR in -shra/-tsra.


Short Term...A west to northwesterly gradient will increase and
deepen allowing for gusty winds today and tonight. SCAs will
remain in effect.

Long Term...

Thu - Fri...SCA`s likely outside the bays.

Sat PM...SCA`s psb outside the bays.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ151-153.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-



NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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