000
FXUS61 KGYX 210658
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
258 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today through tonight
and will shift offshore on Monday as a weak warm front lifts
into western New England. Weak low pressure will slowly track
southeast from western Quebec Monday night and Tuesday. Low
pressure will shift east into the maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak shortwave passing south of the region early this morning is
pushing mid level clouds into southern New Hampshire and
southwest Maine. Showers associated with this system are
gradually shifting northeast through southern New England and
may brush far southern New Hampshire zones along with portions
of southwest coastal Maine through the mid morning hours.

Elsewhere high and mid level clouds will continue to stream
northeast and will be around through the morning hours across
much of the forecast area before moving east this afternoon.
Northwest pressure gradient will tighten across the region as
high pressure builds in from the west. Brisk northwest winds
will also transport much cooler air into the region with highs
not getting out of the 40s in southern zones. Highs in the north
will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in from the west overnight
and will crest over the region by Monday morning. Weak over-
running pattern setting up to the west will produce variable
clouds overnight. Lows will range from the upper teens to mid
20s north and lower to mid 20s south.

High pressure will shift offshore on Monday and a weak warm
front will nose into the region from the west. After morning
sun expect increasing clouds in the afternoon and perhaps a late
day sprinkle in the mountains. Temperatures will remain below
normal with highs ranging through the 40s to near 50 in the
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Tuesday large scale trough continues to rotate over central
and eastern Canada with the base of the trough coming across the
Ohio Valley, New England, and offshore towards Nova Scotia.
Thus we will see several impulses affecting the region over the
next 8 days.

High pressure at the surface is quickly suppressed as a surface
cyclone dives towards the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday
morning. A surface cyclone will deepen over the Gulf of Maine,
possibly bringing some gusty winds and heavier precipitation to
the region...depending on where the low develops. At any rate,
increasing cloud cover and winds will help overnight lows stay
in the 30s most areas, with a few 20s far northwest for Tuesday
morning. Showers will begin and spread across the area, with
snow mixing in at the peaks in the morning before changing over
to rain.

As mentioned the winds behind the system will be gusty.
Additional upslope snow showers will be possible Wednesday.
High pressure will attempt to edge in from the west for the end
of the week but won`t make it very far. Northerly winds will
stubbornly stick around Thursday allowing cool air to flow south
from Canada. Another storm system over the OH Valley- possibly
joining up with another cyclone developing along the east
coast- may bring additional precipitation for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...VFR today through Monday.

Long Term...Deteriorating conditions to MVFR/IFR Tue and
possibly into Wed in -SHRA/-SHSN. Cyclonic flow aloft will keep
MVFR conditions in snow showers in the mtns but downsloping
areas on the northwest flow will keep those areas VFR through
Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Continuing SCAs for the bays and outer waters
through late tonight.

Long Term...Timing and location of development of potential
coastal low in the Gulf of Maine late Tuesday into Wed will
determine strength and timing of backing northwest winds in its
wake. A lot of uncertainty remains for Tue night into Wed but
Gales may be needed by Wed.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT Monday
     for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

Sinsabaugh/Hanes

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion









5462272


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