000
FXUS61 KGYX 171949
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
249 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will cross the area this
evening accompanied by clouds and a few snow showers across the
higher terrain. Canadian high pressure builds into the region
Sunday before a weak and fast moving area of low pressure
develops over the region Sunday night. This system will exit
east of the region Monday, followed by another area of low
pressure passing south of the region Tuesday. An Arctic front
will cross the region Wednesday, followed by high pressure
building into the region through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A reinforcing shot of cold air will cross the region this
evening as a cold front passes quickly through Maine and New
Hampshire. This will prolong and bank some additional cloudiness
and scattered snow showers over the northwest facing higher
terrain.

There will be a general decrease in clouds thereafter, allowing
temperatures to drop into the teens in the north and 20s in the
south by morning as cold air advection continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds increase over southern sections Sunday as a fast moving,
weak impulse quickly moves east from the eastern Great Lakes
region. A weak area of low pressure will then gradually develop
over southern New England Sunday night as it exits out to sea.
Have raised pops during this period for coastal zones, bringing
a light coating of snow to southern areas. Generally kept
amounts of around an inch which is in good agreement with WPC
and our adjacent offices.

There is some disagreement with the location of the snowfall
amounts and location with this system. Most model solutions from
the 12Z run indicated that higher snowfall amounts will cross
south of our region.

Temperatures will remain below normal for this time of the year
in the short term. This will allow for predominantly snow as the
ptype with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast area will be sandwiched between two frontal boundaries
on Monday. Stalled front across southern New England will be
the focus for morning snow showers across far southern and
coastal zones before this activity shifts offshore in the
afternoon. Only looking for spotty QPF with little or no
accumulation expected. Slow moving cold front approaching from
the north will sag into northern zones during the day and may
produce a few late day flurries in the mountains. Highs on
Monday will generally range through the 30s from north to
south.

Cold front will stall over the area Monday night as shortwave
trough approaches from the west. As upper trough sharpens
overnight weak surface low will develop over the eastern Great
Lakes this will bring thickening clouds after midnight and a
chance of snow showers toward daybreak in far western zones.
Lows overnight will range through the teens in the north and
lower to mid 20s south.

Low pressure will weaken as it pushes in from the west on Tuesday
as secondary low forms south of Cape Cod and heads northeast
during the afternoon. Inverted trough extending into central and
eastern Maine may enhance snowfall by late afternoon or early
evening. Remainder of the forecast area will see occasional
light snow with accumulations of an inch or two possible by
evening. Highs will range through the 20s north and 30s south.

Snow may accumulate to advisory level criteria in central and
mid coast Maine Tuesday evening before quickly shifting east.
Timing will likely affect the evening commute with 3 to 6 inches
possible in a narrow corridor in far eastern zones from the mid
coast into central Somerset County if the GFS verifies. ECMWF
not showing this feature so will likely stick close to SB
numbers for pops. Northwest flow kicking in behind departing low
will bring clearing to the region after midnight along with a
re-enforcing blast of arctic air. Lows by Wednesday morning will
range from the single numbers north to the lower to mid teens
south.

Wednesday will dawn cold and blustery with temperatures well
below normal for this time of year. Weak mid level shortwave
on a secondary cold front will only add to the cold in the
afternoon bringing a quick shot of snow showers and squalls
into western zones by evening. High will range from the mid
teens to mid 20s north and mid 20s to lower 30s south.

Snow showers and squalls will gradually push south of the region
Wednesday evening dropping an inch or two of snow...mainly in
southern zones. Some of the coldest air of the season will be
ushered in on gusty northwest winds after midnight Setting the
stage for a very fridged Thanksgiving holiday. Lows by Thursday
morning will bottom out at 5 to 15 north and 15 to 20 south.

Thanksgiving will be windy and cold with morning sun giving way
to clouds and perhaps a few flurries as a weakening trough
drops south into northern zones. High temperatures will only
reach the teens in the north and lower to mid 20s in the south.

High pressure will build in from the west Thursday night and
will crest over the region by Friday morning. Fresh snow pack
...clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiational
cooling with lows ranging through the single numbers to lower
teens.

High pressure will hold over the region on Friday with
temperaturees moderating somewhat. Looking for variable high
clouds with highs in the 20s north and upper 20s to lower 30s
south.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions, however coastal sites may
briefly drop to MVFR in snowfall by Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night.

Long Term...
Areas of MVFR ceilings in southern and coastal zones Monday
morning...becoming VFR in the afternoon. VFR MOnday night.
MVFR/ifr ceilings and vsby developing Tuesday. Becoming VFR
Tuesday night. VFR Wednesday with MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsby
Wednesday evening in snow showers and squalls. VFR Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Have extended the SCAs for the outer waters through
tonight. Gusty winds will continue along with wave heights in
the 3 to 5 foot range.

Long Term...
SCA`s may be needed needed Wednesday and gales possible
Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$
JC

NWS GYX Office Area Forecast Discussion











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