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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

National Hurricane Center Report

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 061131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland.

A small low pressure system has moved inland over the Florida
panhandle. The small low is forecast to evolve into a larger low
pressure system and move northeastward, near the coast of the
Carolinas. Since the low is currently over land, no development
is expected today or tomorrow. However, some development will be
possible if the system moves back over water on Wednesday or
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands.
Some slight development of this system is possible today before
environmental conditions become hostile for development on Tuesday.
The wave is forecast to move through the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday
and could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds on some of
those islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Edouard (AT5/AL052020)

...EDOUARD RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Jul 6
 the center of Edouard was located near 40.8, -50.0
 with movement NE at 37 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Edouard Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020  

208 
WTNT35 KNHC 061442
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020
 
...EDOUARD RACING NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 50.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was
located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 50.0 West. Edouard is
moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is
forecast to become post-tropical later today.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020  

618 
WTNT25 KNHC 061441
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052020
1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  50.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  32 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE 150SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N  50.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N  51.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 43.2N  44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  80SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.7N  37.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N  29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 53.0N  20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N  50.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 061442
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052020
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020
 
Visible satellite imagery continues to show that the low-level
center of Edouard is exposed to the southwest of the area of deep
convection.  A frontal boundary is approaching the system from the
northwest and there are signs that Edouard's extratropical
transition has begun. Subjective and objective intensity estimates
from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are between 35-45 kt, and the initial
intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on the above, and the
rapid forward speed of the cyclone.  ASCAT data should provide a
better assessment of Edouard's intensity very shortly.
 
Edouard is racing northeastward with an initial estimate of
055/32 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general speed and
heading over the next day or two as it remains embedded within an
area of strong southwesterly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is
again near the middle of the guidance envelope and very similar to
the previous advisory.
 
Cooler waters, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the
approaching frontal zone should cause Edouard to complete its
extratropical transition within the next 6-12 hours.  Little change
in strength is expected as this occurs.  Gradual weakening should
begin on Tuesday, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to
dissipate within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic in a couple
of days.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 40.8N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 43.2N  44.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  07/1200Z 46.7N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/0000Z 50.0N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  08/1200Z 53.0N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Storm Edouard Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020


000
FONT15 KNHC 061442
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052020               
1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm Edouard Graphics


Tropical Storm Edouard 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 14:43:39 GMT

Tropical Storm Edouard 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 15:24:46 GMT











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