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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

National Hurricane Center Report

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


413
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south-southwest
of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
development tonight and Sunday, but conditions could become more
conducive for some development of this system on Monday or Tuesday
while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds
are likely to limit additional development as the system turns
northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become
conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or
tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the
low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
 the center of Eleven was located near 13.6, -53.9
 with movement NW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018  

900 
WTNT31 KNHC 222036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 53.9W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
faster west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and
continue through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight or
Sunday and dissipate Sunday night east of the Lesser Antilles.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018  

899 
WTNT21 KNHC 222036
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  53.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  53.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  53.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N  56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  53.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018  

490 
WTNT41 KNHC 222037
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

Since the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in
association with the depression to the point that it was not
classifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a
couple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently,
and if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical
cyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed
with UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the
cyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24
hours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global
model fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours
and that is indicated in the official forecast.

The low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a
recent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate
is 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-
northwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and
the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.6N  53.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 14.4N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018


337 
FONT11 KNHC 222036
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112018               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics


Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:38:54 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 21:21:54 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
 the center of Kirk was located near 8.6, -24.8
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018  

915 
WTNT32 KNHC 222038
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 24.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 24.8 West. Kirk is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to
continue through tonight. A faster westward motion across the deep
tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with little change in
intensity expected on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018  

746 
WTNT22 KNHC 222037
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.6N  24.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.6N  24.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.4N  24.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z  9.1N  27.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z  9.5N  31.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z  9.7N  35.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z  9.8N  40.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.5N  48.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 11.5N  54.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.6N  24.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018  

925 
WTNT42 KNHC 222038
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

The convection associated with Kirk is currently disorganized, with
the majority of it in a cluster to the west of the center.  Most of
the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in
the 30-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
advisory.

The forecast track takes Kirk over SSTs around 27C for the next 36
h or so with generally low shear, which appears favorable for
gradual strengthening.  However, there is a possibility that
entrainment of dry air from an area of African dust present to
the north of Kirk may allow less intensification than currently
forecast. From 36-72 h, there is some divergence in the intensity
guidance between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast
strengthening into a hurricane, and the dynamical models, which
forecast little additional strengthening.  The intensity forecast
leans toward the dynamical models during that period.  After 72 h,
Kirk should encounter increasing westerly shear and gradually
weaken.  The intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the
previous forecast, lies a little above the intensity consensus IVCN.

The initial motion is now 290/13.  The subtropical ridge to the
north of the storm should steer Kirk quickly westward for the next
72 h or so, with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt.  Later in the
forecast period, Kirk should turn west-northwestward with a
decrease in forward speed as it nears a developing weakness in the
ridge near and to the east of the Lesser Antilles.  The new
forecast track, which is closest to the HCCA consensus model, is
shifted a little to the north of the previous track.  However, it
continues to lie on the south side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z  8.6N  24.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z  9.1N  27.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z  9.5N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z  9.7N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z  9.8N  40.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 10.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 11.5N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 13.0N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018


857 
FONT12 KNHC 222038
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122018               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35
KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics


Tropical Storm Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:40:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 21:28:08 GMT









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