Global Sea Surface Temperaure
Current Atlantic Satellite Loop
Current Pacific Satellite Loop
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of MexicoNational Hurricane Center Report
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240508
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the middle to latter portions of the week
while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT32
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT22
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Public Advisory Number 12
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP
Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
...PHILIPPE CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Philippe was located near 15.6, -41.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 4
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023000 WTNT32 KNHC 240837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023 ...PHILIPPE CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 41.4W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 41.4 West. Philippe is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion is expected over the next few days, with a turn towards the west-northwest and northwest around the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023000 WTNT22 KNHC 240837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 41.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 41.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N 43.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 49.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 50.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.2N 52.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 54.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N 55.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 41.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 4
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023000 WTNT42 KNHC 240837 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023 Philippe is still trying to become better organized this morning. There continues to be burst within the convection with very cold cloud tops to -80 degrees Celsius. However, the convection remains displaced to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. An ASCAT pass that arrived just after the previous advisory revealed winds on the northeast side of the system were near 40 kt. Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates for this cycle from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/T2.5, respectively. Using a blend of these estimates and the scatterometer satellite-derived winds, the intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt. The system is moving westward at an estimated motion of 280/8 kt. Philippe should continue westward fro the next couple of days, steered along the southern side of a mid-level ridge. In about 2 to 3 days, a weakness in the ridge will develop and the tropical storm should gradually turn west-northwest and then northwest. Models have continued to slow the forward motion of Philippe towards the end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast was adjusted accordingly. The NHC track forecast lies near the corrected consensus aids throughout the period, with a slight nudge to the left of the previous track. Models depict that Philippe will take some time to get organized due to mid-level vertical wind shear and some drier mid-level RH values. This will lead to only slow strengthening the next few days. In about 3 days, as Philippe approaches a mid-upper level trough, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase but upper-level divergence should increase over the system as well. The guidance continues to favor some additional strengthen through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.6N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 16.3N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.3N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 18.1N 50.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 19.2N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 22.4N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 24.2N 55.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 240837
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 08:39:16 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 09:23:04 GMT
