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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 240508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the middle to latter portions of the week
while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT32
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT22
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Public Advisory Number 12

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Graphics


Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated LATEST_W5_TIMESTAMP

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

...PHILIPPE CONTINUES WESTWARD...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24
 the center of Philippe was located near 15.6, -41.4
 with movement W at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240837
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023
 
...PHILIPPE CONTINUES WESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 41.4W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was 
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 41.4 West. Philippe is 
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward 
motion is expected over the next few days, with a turn towards 
the west-northwest and northwest around the middle of the week.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next 
few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 240837
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  41.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  41.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  40.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N  43.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N  45.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N  47.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N  49.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N  50.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.2N  52.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N  54.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N  55.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  41.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240837
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2023

Philippe is still trying to become better organized this morning. 
There continues to be burst within the convection with very cold 
cloud tops to -80 degrees Celsius. However, the convection remains 
displaced to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. An 
ASCAT pass that arrived just after the previous advisory revealed 
winds on the northeast side of the system were near 40 kt. 
Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates for this cycle from TAFB and 
SAB were T3.0/T2.5, respectively. Using a blend of these estimates 
and the scatterometer satellite-derived winds, the intensity for 
this advisory is raised to 40 kt. 
 
The system is moving westward at an estimated motion of 280/8 kt. 
Philippe should continue westward fro the next couple of days, 
steered along the southern side of a mid-level ridge. In about 2 to 
3 days, a weakness in the ridge will develop and the tropical storm 
should gradually turn west-northwest and then northwest. Models 
have continued to slow the forward motion of Philippe towards the 
end of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast was adjusted 
accordingly. The NHC track forecast lies near the corrected 
consensus aids throughout the period, with a slight nudge to the 
left of the previous track.
 
Models depict that Philippe will take some time to get organized due 
to mid-level vertical wind shear and some drier mid-level RH values. 
This will lead to only slow strengthening the next few days. In 
about 3 days, as Philippe approaches a mid-upper level trough, 
deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase but 
upper-level divergence should increase over the system as well. The 
guidance continues to favor some additional strengthen through the 
end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to 
the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 15.6N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.9N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 16.3N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 16.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 17.3N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 18.1N  50.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 19.2N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 22.4N  54.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 24.2N  55.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023


000
FONT12 KNHC 240837
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics


Tropical Storm Philippe 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 08:39:16 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 09:23:04 GMT











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