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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 161127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Tropical Depression Fifteen, which has degenerated into a trough of
low pressure near the northern Cabo Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Remnants of Fifteen (AT5/AL152019)

...LAST ADVISORY AS DEPRESSION DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 16
 the center of Fifteen was located near 17.3, -24.1
 with movement NW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Remnants of Fifteen Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160832
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fifteen Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019

...LAST ADVISORY AS DEPRESSION DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 24.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fifteen were located near
latitude 17.3 North, longitude 24.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and that motion
should continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system should weaken further today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Blake

Remnants of Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 160832
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019
0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  24.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  24.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  23.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  24.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Remnants of Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 160833
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Fifteen Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019

Satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of the
system has become rather elongated north-to-south, with only a few
weak swirls in the circulation envelope, and has degenerated into a
trough of low pressure.  Thus it is no longer a tropical cyclone,
and this is the last advisory.  The winds are lowered to 25 kt,
matching the TAFB classification.

The remnants of the cyclone are expected to move northwestward
during the next few days.  There is a slight chance of
regeneration, as suggested by the ECMWF model and some of its
ensemble members due to a trough interaction, but that's considered
unlikely at this point.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 17.3N  24.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Remnants of Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 160833
PWSAT5
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152019               
0900 UTC WED OCT 16 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3    
NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS
...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                                                
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Remnants of Fifteen Graphics


Remnants of Fifteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 08:33:39 GMT

Remnants of Fifteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Oct 2019 09:24:21 GMT











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